Understanding the key elements of projecting Free Cash Flow
FCF = EBIT × (1-t) - CapEx - ΔWC
After-tax EBIT - Capital Expenditures - Change in Working Capital
Remember: FCF projection is both art and science, requiring sound judgment and industry insight.
The present value of all future cash flows beyond the forecast period
Typically accounts for 60-80% of total company valuation
Perpetual Growth: TV = FCF × (1+g) / (WACC-g)
Exit Multiple: TV = EBITDA × Multiple
The rate used to convert future cash flows to present value, reflecting risk and time value of money
Small changes in discount rate can lead to 20-30% valuation differences, making it one of the most sensitive inputs in DCF models
WACC = Cost of Equity × Equity % + Cost of Debt × Debt % × (1-Tax Rate)
Risk-Free Rate
(Usually government bonds)
Risk Premium
(Compensation for taking risk)
Discount Rate
(Typical range)